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FBI’s Clinton probe is the black swan that could throw election off course, Citi says

The Citi analysts point to tremors that hit markets in the wake of the bombshell from the FBI that was short on detail but long on impact. The bank states that the News has pushed prediction market odds betting on a Clinton win from 81 percent to 75 percent.

Even prior to the announcement, Clinton’s lead over Republican candidate Donald Trump had shrunk in the most recent week of RCP polling, from 6.4 percent on October 20 to 5.6 percent on October 27.

According to the research, given that it typically takes at least a week for the effect of new developments to be picked up in polls, we may not be able to quantify the full impact of this event until right before next Tuesday’s election. The report’s authors do not think it is likely the FBI will conclude its probe prior to the elections, adding to and compounding the uncertainty surrounding the issue.

Although the Citi team retains its prediction of a 75 percent probability of a Clinton victory, it notes “these developments have added a significant obstacle to the Clinton campaign and are likely to further dent voter confidence.”

Source : CNBC

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